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Prediction Markets Can Work Without Money on the Line By Emile Servan-Schreiber, Guest Columnist
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92 天前
2026-07-08 09:00:20 UTC
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92 天前
2026-07-08 09:00:20 UTC
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92 天前
2026-07-08 15:43:34 UTC
作者通过实验和案例表明，无需真金白银的预测市场或竞赛同样能准确预测未来，甚至优于真钱平台。设计、组织和激励机制比金钱投入更重要。
The author argues that prediction markets and polls using play money or non-monetary incentives can be just as accurate, if not more so, than real-money platforms, as demonstrated by experiments and real-world examples like geopolitical forecasting during Brexit and the COVID-19
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